Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Is stock market investing a zero sum game?

A zero sum game is one if the amount of which win is still matches to lose the amount of which lost in total. All forms of gaming are good examples of zero sum games. The pot with money at stake, that is, between the winner in all gambling, split the losers and the House. The House can theoretically be counted in each case the losers, but gaming is usually good business in General, because the House much more often than it loses be. The logical result is player as a group win more than they lose.

But what happens is used actually a redistribution of funds to make the bet. The total gewettet remains unchanged, the bets are beaten and was closed after the game.

It has something of an ongoing debate whether the stock market is been invested in a zero-sum game. Those who say who is on the fact that there is a winner and a loser for each trade. If an investor buys a share, and it is upwards, he / she has won, and lost the person who sold the shares of the same amount. (We leave transaction costs for simplicity sake). Roles transposes the winners and losers if the share.

Those investing in the market say is not a zero sum game, statistically prädestiniert winners keep it wise to the fact that the overall market tend to increase in value over time, so most investors shall be their positions in the long run.

Our own thought is that both both arguments right elements not the whole story must tell them but. The second argument ignores the fact that, if any seller charged situation and registered a large profit, actually a fictitious loss takes the investors who buys the position because in theory he / they could have purchased in earlier with the lower price. The first argument is missing the fact that dividend payments to the return on investment with a stream of income in such a way that the "pot" is constantly sweetened add, making the total return of all investors over the simple gain of a buy or sell later.

Hmmm... complex things. What do you think? Is a zero-sum game like gambling stock trade? Or there is a qualitative difference in this form of assumption of risk allows that more operators winner than those that appear under losses when searching?

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